Okuns Law....

Heran pasal apa walaupun dekat luaq matahari punya laa terang.... tp dont be fooled.... suhu -3.5 Celsius...

Last few days kene kutuk ngan housemate Belanda becozz aku cakap Belanda style skema. Tgk Frank tgh main guitar... Aku cakap "te gek jonge!!!" bersepai kene gelak.... makna dia mcm "cool man!" actually sepatutnya aku kaja "nice" jaaa... Vocab Belanda aku ok aaaaa tp grammar berteraboq

semayang Jumaat tadi ada Muslimat baru.... Dengaq suara cam dutch.... Sentimentoi gak... pastu aku teringat..... Sejak abang ucop balik... aku mana ada number orang Islam(as in practicing Muslim) yang lain.... So, aku mintak laaa nambot tepon Pak Berahim nama dia Ibrahim drp Al Jazaa iee.... Algeria... tp dia nie tak reti English.... tp Dutch, perancis n Arabic mcm ayaq.... aku apa lagi, cakap rojak aaaa...

Hurmm euronews skang dok heboh pasal Davos Econs forum

Nampaknya Europe skang dalam masalah walaupon they appear to be united.... u know... dengan single currency depa....free trade...free entry etc.... bAru-baru nie one of the advisors of IMF eu cakap sebenaqnya negara eropah nie bila dalam crisis, depa lebih pentingkan diri sendiri secara defactonya. Germany dok seronok currency de-value lepas bailout greece coz export dia melonjak naik...pastu portugal plak masalah..... Skang nie Spain pulak dalam masalah.... tax naik and benefits kurang... Unemployment rate naik..... rumah mahal... Nampaknya sejak euro di intoduce kan, banyak side effect.. Egypte, yaman, Tunisia.maaacam2 masalah.... harga minyak kuih naik.... hrmm tak tau laaa apa nak jadi

Ok back to worK

Kelebek punya kelebek

Menatang apa okuns law nie???

Ok i'll describe it in a very kedah way...

Dia menerangkan ciri-ciri antara perubahan kadar pengangguran dan perubahan antara GDP yang sebenaq dan GDP yang sepatutnya. Mcm nie laaa....berapa percent bagi setiap perubahan unemplyment sebenaq dan unemplyment yang sepatutnya kita punya GDP jatuh sekian2 percent haaaa

In order to describe menatang nie... it is worthwhile kalau kita ushar sket simultanious equation model

y= Spatial unit/endo if right hand

i=cross sectional unit

t=time

α=intercept

β=Exogenous

However this model cannot be estimated.. kalau tak, dia meletoppp

δ-->Endo

γ-->Exo

σ-->Error correlation

So masukkan restriction nie dalam Simultanious equation

So termasuklah neighboring effect

Researchers nie mmg pikiaq secara detail.... Contohnya...

Of course kalau Panel data, dia termasuk effect masa dan effect sample....

Kalau bercakap pasal unemployment dan GDP mesti ada cyclical effect...i mean effect keadaaan ekonomi contohnya kalau every ten years is assumed to be recession... So, depa masukkan Henry Prescot HP to take account for these effect

Selauntu depa test for unit root-- Kot2 kalau ada masalah dalam sampel

Nampaknya Neighboring effect memang mustahak dalam model nie pasai improvement dalan unempoyment rate dapat dalam satu region dapat improvekan GDP di region lain

Policy implication dia pulak.... tak banyak actually... pasai apa? ..... Mcm nie lah.... adun kawasan pendang la... mesti takkan amik kisah kawasan lain(especially kalau parti lain).... (this explaination needs improvement--- i know yg lain pon need improvement tp especially this one)

Menda yang bermain dalam otak

Actually ada banyak mende nak tulis nieee tapi.... Tah tade mood... Dalam otak kire exaaaaam ja.... Banyak mende yang pending utk entry aku cthnya....

1) Peristiwa cabut gigi lagi satu.... this time I was not sedated although I took sedative pills... It was worse than before coz they had to split the tooth which is horizontal into 4 pieces. Pakai drill lagi tuuu....

2)Jalan2 cari makan dekat Bremen..... Kalau laa hot dog tu halal

3)Peristiwa gi Paris ngan kakyong ngan abang apit n family

4)My new year celebration

Start daripada sini, post nie adalah selfish post aku.... Takdak sapa pon akan paham... nie utk aku... tp kalau nak baca gak baca aaa haha

Dalam otak aku skang spatial econometriiiiiic je

Manski Model

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+WX θ+u

u =λWu+ε

Y = Dependent variable N x 1

W= Menda matrix yang buat dalam Geoda tuu

ρ= Spatial autoregressive

X=N x K independent variable

β and θ = K x 1 anu

α = Anu tetap

Model nie cam sebijik kereta yang dah siap ( Of course paper nie tahun 2003 kot... mungkin ada jebon2 yang pintar dapat improvekan model nie....

Provided yang θ= 0, θ ada sekali dengan independent variable dan jugak WX nie exogenous so kita tauk buang, jadi laaaa Kelejian-Prucha model. Anggaplah variable nie macam bumbung kereta... So, jadi laaaa convertable

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+u

u =λWu+ε

Tapi kalau λ= O, dia jadi spatial durbin model

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+WX θ+ε (alaaaa u tukaq jadi ε sudeyyy) tapi actually Wu ditauk buang, diibaratkan seperti tauk buang pintu kereta

Tp kalau ρ = 0

Jadilah Spatial Durbin error model.... Kita tengok ρ niee melekat dekat WY which is endogenous, so kita buang Endo. Diibaratkan seperti buang bonet

Y = αιN + Xβ+WX θ+u

u =λWu+ε

Basically Model manski nie dipecahkan kepada 3 model lain mengikut parameter yang ditetapkan. Parameter yang ditetapkan adalah θ, λ, dan ρ. So kalau kita test model tu, mana2 parameter yang disebutkan adalah sama ngan 0 maknanya parameter tu nak kena tauk buang, so jadi lah model2 seperti Kelijian pruscha, spatial durbin model dan spatial durbin error model. So, jadilah kereta yang tak berbumbung, tak berpintu dan tak berbonet

Sekarang, kita nak rungkaikan lagi kereta tu.....

Aku nak start dengan model Kelijian prusha yang takdak bumbung tadi tu

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+u

u =λWu+ε

There are two instances in terms of parameter untuk model ini reduce ke model2 lain.

Contohnya anggaplah λ sebagai tingkap. λ kita tengok ada dalam u =λWu+ε so, jadilah spatial lag model

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+ε

satu lagi kalau dalam model yang sama, yakni Kelijian prusha model, kalau dibuang ρ wiper instead of tingkap λ, jadilah Spatial error model iaitu...

Y =αιN + Xβ+u (ingat... either or je tau! maknanya tingkap retain λ , wiper je buang)

u =λWu+ε

Skang kita pegi ke Spatial Durbin Model pulak

recap

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+WX θ+ε

ingat, nie kereta yang takdak pintu

provided yang parameter θ=0 , mcm takda kunci so jadilah Spatial lag model

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+ε

Tapi kalau θ=-ρβ, jadi lah spatial error model (This is quite confusing.... I need to read more)

Y =αιN + Xβ+u .

Now, we go to Spatial error Durbin Model a.k.a bonet

Y = αιN + Xβ+WX θ+u

u =λWu+ε

provided yang θ=0, jadilah spatial error model

Y =αιN + Xβ+u

u =λWu+ε

Skang nie kita campare spatial lag(Dibawah) dan spatial error model

Y = ρWY +αιN + Xβ+ε

Ushar ρ & λ berdasarkan kepada dua model iaitu Spatial lag dan spatial error

Kalau salah satu nya kosong, maknanya jadilah basic OLS model

Y = αιN + Xβ+ε

Its basically my own way to understand these stuff.....

Tok

Syukur Alhamdulillah when I received the news that Tok dah passed away, I was with kakyong and family in Paris. At least I was not alone.... Terkejut jugak... tp redha je... Seriously contemplating utk balik, coz dah dekat dah ngan Charles De Gaulle Airport, and insurance cover for the expense. Tp papa n mama kata no need, coz mmg Ziad takkan sempat... Tambahan pulak there were chaos in airports becoz of the heavy snow

Tak sangka time Ziad balik jumpa tok time kenduri Nawal adalah kali terakhir Ziad jumpa tok. Glad to have your last kisses with traces of bedak sejuk on my cheeks and i purposely wouldnt wipe it off haha. I thank her for the prayers to me for my success. Tok had faith in me even though I had doubts in my self,

"Takpa Ziad.... Tok Yakin, Tok dah doa dah...Ziad akan pass..... Baca book elok2"

Her shoulders were the most comfortable shoulders to put your head on. She was a woman of wisdom... After all that she had been through, she's tough and a true survivor.

No regrets... Time balik Malaysia, Ziad bagi isi nyioq kat dia... Tau dia suka... Pastu bawak balik chocolates and cheese from Holland.... Bagi dia makan cherries and peaches... Kehulu-kehilir cari ubat n cream utk dia.... I guess Mama, papa n Nawal pon no regrets... MAma telah lah... Lap dia, basuh rambut dia etc. Papa was more than a son than a son in law. Nawal can be in her best dress and still jump in and bagi mandi dia. Special thanks to Loan(Nawal's husband) for taking my place utk uruskan Tok. We treated her like a Queen.....

Now its my turn to Doa for her. For her safe journey to the realm of barzakh and beyond.

Moga Allah ampunkan segala dosa tok, eliminate Azab kubur, terangkan dan luaskan kubur dia.

"Ziad saaaaayang kat Tok"

Readers, please sedekahkan Yasin.... anything lah Al-Ikhlas keee Al-Fatihah kee...anything....

Landmines

Topic nie agak jijik. Its about Animal defecation product

In Malaysia

Avoid sandy areas!! or be cautious of on places that has sand or even small gravels. Coz potentially a sneaky feline has left a present. And the smell..... you tell me. It gets worse when you stepped on it and you get into your car and the smell stays in you car for days. I can just understand that there are alot of stray animals in Malaysia. So its the animals fault and partially its the local govts fault coz they do not take care of these stray cats

In the Netherlands

Avoid grassy areas along the walking path. Coz its a mine zone. Allocate at least 1 metre of buffer zone, but in the middle of the field the risk gets less but still watch out!. Another spot that you should avoid are the trees by the side of the road. Dont ever walk on the dirt around the tree Here feline is not much trouble. But the K9 is much worse especially the big fat ones. The big fat ones produce a LOAD of you know what. Things gets worse during winter coz its most likely covered by snow, you cant see it until you step on it. Its not the fault of the animal coz there are no stray animals in the netherlands. Its the fault of the dog owbers! Here, dog poo wise, the people are very individualistic and they are opportunists! with low sense of social capital. Funny... such a developed country, people are still under developed (dog poo wise).

In Australia

Its pretty safe I guess. People here are more aware of the environment. Although they take their dogs out for a walk, the pickup the poo that the dogs left. If you observe the Aussies, they walk their dogs with a leach and they have spare plastic bags..... you know... to pick up the chocolate fudge. Sometimes I can also see them with their palm wrapped in plastic bag, waiting for the chocolate fudge to drop from the factory "literally!!!" . I guess the saying "Dogs are mens best friend" really applies in Australia! . Would you do that to your human best friend??? I dont think so! you'd rather do it to your dog..... That makes me wonder, who's the master???. At least Australians have better awareness... Plus.. in recreational parks its pretty easy to get plastic bags for de poo poo.

I know this entry is disgusting. Its just because last saturday I stepped on one!!! Just beside my apartment! and its not even near a tree or sand. Its on cement! and It was a big yellow one! with my Lacoste shoes! Verdomme!

Have a nice Disgusting day :)

Pengalaman Menarik

Ini adalah cerita drp salah sorang Prof drp school aku

Thesis Phd dia mainly about Moses Model. Moses model nie basically an extension drp Weber Model. Not Max weber tp adik dia. Basically dalam mainstream economics, Dunia nie hanyalah di hujung pin, maksudnya lokasi firm or lebih mendalam lagi jarak firm tu dengan firm lain dan suppliers tak diambil kira. Sebab tu ada New economic geography yang ambik kira lokasi n jarak. Well google moses model kalau nak tau lebih lanjut.

Selalunya academician ada ada idola dia. Kalau dia nie dalam bidang Economy, maybe idola dia J.M Keynes or Milton friedman. Kalau dalam Physics mungkin Raymond Davis Jr.... Mcm aku, idola academia aku ialah mendiang Earnst Gellnerr. Tp idola prof aku nie, si Moses nie la.. One day lepas conference di new york kawan2 prof aku nie arrange prof aku supaya bole gi dinner dekat umah si Moses nie. Pergh... bayangkan rumah bungalow berpagar high security dekat new york(sapa kata lecturer gaji ciput huh!).

Masa tengah dinner dengan si Moses nie, prof aku notice dekat dinding dining room to ada banyak painting. So, dia tanya aaa siapa lukis? Moses kata Frida Kahlo kalau tak silap. Frida Kahlo tu tau siapa????Famous maxican painter yang paint dekat UN building. Sebijik2 harga berjuta. Tp bapak si moses nie kenal dengan painter tu, masa dia tak famous aaa. And painting yang dekat umah moses nie masa dia beli, less that 10 Dollar...... Sekarang Berjuta.... Pastu si Moses nie soh prof aku gi Toilet umah dia.... Prof aku masuk... tadak apa2 pon .. tapi bila dia tutup pintu bilik ayaq tu, ada satu lagi painting.... dia ushar betui2 ada signature picasso.....Rupanya bapak si moses nie kenal rapat ngan picasso and dia beli painting tu dengan harga yg sangat murah.

So the question is, painting2 yang bermillion2 dollar nie mcm mana nak protect? Haaa nie cerita best. Of course laa ada security and alarm semua. Tp despite that family moses nie kaya raya, depa mash lagi tak mampu untuk insure semua painting2 tu. Picasso tu saja, nilai dia berkali2 ganda keseluruhan asset keluarga moses. So, depa tubuhkan foundation kerjasama dengan muzeum utk nak insure semua painting.

Aku ingat aaa bila berjalan2 kat europe, tgk painting murah, beli je!!! mana tau kot2 famaous kawan tu, Buleh berjuta2 euro

Note to self.... never compromise safety.... Td naik beskal, aku dok tailgate satu kereta, tiba2 dia brek.... sikiiiit ja lagi... dahla brek aku hampeh... Immediately gi repair brek kat kedai... kena 11.50eur...

Beste

Dutch Edu Sys

My last post, kan aku mention DUtch style education. Well, it is tough but nothing is imposible. I received an e-mail that I've passed subject yang paling susah (at least for me). Siap cakap congratulations lagi. mmg banyak orang fail subject nie pon, yang repeat pon fail.... Oh yeah kat holland, repeat nie is not a big deal yerr.... 5.5/10 is the passing mark... so berceretet yang fail. Tp syukur Alhamdulillah Allah bagi jalan. The journey towards passing this subject wasn't easy. Kita nie dah la tak reti... So jadi laaa pengemis... Muka nak kene tebal laa... Pegi study ngan budak drp China, Africa n German..... Yang paling banyak tolong, budak Nigeria, Obi nama dia..... Baik dan ikhlas menolong....Banyak nya dia yang mengajar aku.. I think he will be a great teacher...

Rupanya, dutch system, Weekly test susah gilerrr soklan pusing babeng.... Mid terms test pon susah... Tp final... betul2 mcm soklan cth masa class.... Aku mcm tak caye gak... Tp that's their style.

This block ada statistic... Banyaknya hans on with spss... menarik gak... Ada multiple regression... factor analysis etc lagi detail laaa.... I really need to grasp on factor analysis to learn on Principle component analysis (PCA)

Syukur

Suasana dekat Holland nie amatlah lain. Bagi yang Iman yang tak kuat, mmg akan terpesong. Sesetengah benda yang salah dari sisi agama dan budaya kita mmg menjadi perkara biasa bagi orang2 dekat sini. Tak lupa juga kepada orang2 yang lupa pada asal usul. Allah dah bagi keistimewaan untuk belajaq dekat Kota Groningen yang Indah nie, ada juga segelintir yang lupa asal usul. Pernah aku bersembang dengan orang yang lupa asal usul budaya dan agama, berbangga dengan vodka yang dipegangnya. Macam Vodka tu lambang kemajuan dan trend. Pemikiran dia yang menganggap orang yang conservative ( yang masih lagi intact dengan agama dan budaya) nie sebagai kolot. Malah, mempersendakan golongan seperti ini. Dengan ilmunya yang penuh didada bercampur dengan perasaan riak melafazkan nas daripada kitab Suci daripada surah Al Kafirun, iaitu....Untukmu agamamu, dan untuk ku lah agamaku. Rupanya budak nie pernah belajr dekat Madrasah. Thats why kita nak kene doa everyday and everytime moga2 Allah bagi kita ketetapan Iman.

“Dan kalau Allah menghendaki, niscaya Dia menjadikan kamu satu umat (saja), tetapi Allah menyesatkan siapa yang dikehendaki- Nya dan memberi petunjuk kepada siapa yang dikehendaki- Nya. Dan sesungguhnya kamu akan ditanya tentang apa yang telah kamu kerjakan.” [An- Nahl : 93]

Tak kurang jugak orang Belanda.... Pure Dutch! ...... Yang kaya raya. Taukeh Chocolate laa katakan. If you Imagine a stylish european chocolate shop with hand made chocolates yang kita tgk dalam travel TV tu, itu lah kedai dia. Who would of have known that yang tauke tu Masuk Islam. Nice chap, bila aku masuk kedai dia dengan cousins aku, I guess maybe coz dia tgk my cousins pakai tudung, dia terus bagi salam. Aku mati2 ingat dia orang maroco. Tp tak.... Dia pure dutch dan dia peluk Islam not through marriage. Aku tanya dia, mcm mana bole peluk Islam nie? Dia kata dia lonely.... Bila dia kawin pon dia lonely. So, one day dia dok ushar2 buku pastu dia tarik Al-Quran dan randomly baca

Dia recite ayat nie

“Wahai manusia sesungguhnya Kami telah

menciptakan kamu daripada lelaki dan perempuan. Dan

Kami jadikan kamu berbangsa-bangsa dan bersuku-suku

supaya kamu saling kenal mengenal.”

Al-Hujurat ((49) : 13

Dia kata, Nie lah yang aku mencari-cari selama nie.

Dia cukup tak suka Geert Wilders..... And then dia quote pulak ayat nie

Firman Allah: ``Kitab Suci itulah hidayah petunjuk Allah. Allah memberi hidayah petunjuk dengan al-Quran itu kepada sesiapa yang dikehendaki-Nya (menurut undang-undang peraturan-Nya) dan (ingatlah) sesiapa yang disesatkan Allah (disebabkan pilihannya yang salah), maka tidak ada sesiapa pun yang dapat memberi hidayah petunjuk kepadanya.'' (Az-Zumar 39:3).

Kita pon naik segan how this guy really appreciate Islam......

Nie christmas dah dekat, Siterclass pon dah mula dok mai dah..... Lagi kaya laaa muallaf tu hehe

Abang eddy ajak gi Milan, paris n swiss time xmass..... Hurmmm takyah lahh baik concentrate ngan research..... I have to remember my main objective here.... To get through Phd.... Maybe I'll drop by hannover tido 2 malam kaaa cukup.. then bak to work... i have yet to convince prof that I have the materials to get Phd :(

Pulun aaaa bila lagi??

Anyway Snow dah turun.... Sejuk super.....